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Why Conservative Remainers believe Theresa May will surrender to a soft Brexit

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• Key Brexit amendments that could have avoided a no-deal Brexit were defeated this week after not enough Conservative Remainers turned up to back them.
• However, Remain-supporting Tory MPs aren't too despondent after Tuesday's vote.
• They calculate that Theresa May's attempts to renegotiate the Irish backstop will fail.
• At that point, they hope that Theresa May will be forced to seek an extension of Article 50 and pivot towards a softer Brexit option.

LONDON — There was some anger this week after a Brexit amendment brought forward by Labour MP Yvette Cooper, which would have allowed Parliament to delay Brexit and avoid a no-deal exit, was defeated.

A number of Conservative Remainers either abstained, or voted against the amendment, causing it to fail. 

Briefings that up to 40 Remainer ministers could resign to back Cooper's amendment also failed to materialise with every single one sitting on their hands. A separate amendment by Conservative MP Dominic Grieve, which would have allowed MPs to seize control of the Brexit process was also defeated.

"Last night I said that @YvetteCooperMP was someone you could go on a tiger hunt with," Conservative MP Nick Boles tweeted the following morning.

"How right I was. I wish I could say the same of all my colleagues."

The no-show occurred after some in the group argued that they should bide their time and wait for a better opportunity to strike after May failed to renegotiate her deal with the EU.

One prominent former minister who resigned in protest against Theresa May's Brexit deal argued that the group should abstain from voting on any amendments as a deliberate attempt to put Brexit-supporting MPs in the driving seat for a couple of weeks before watching the government's attempts to renegotiate her deal in Brussels "implode."

As a result a separate Brexiteer amendment tabled by Conservative MP Graham Brady and supported by the prime minister herself did pass, requiring her to try and remove the Irish backstop from her deal, something the EU has repeatedly warned it will not do.

This means Tory Brexiteers are now in the driving seat — for the next two weeks, at least, before the prime minister comes back to the House of Commons for another vote in February.

And that is why some Remain-supporting MPs are not too despondent about the defeats to last night's Cooper and Grieve amendments.

They calculate that the Prime Minister will now go to Brussels, fail in her attempts to renegotiate her Brexit deal, and see a mostly unchanged Brexit deal defeated heavily in parliament for a second time.

At that point, they hope that Theresa May will be forced to seek an extension of Article 50 and pivot towards a softer Brexit option. All the while, they will be less tainted by accusations of having hijacked the Brexit process than if the Cooper or Grieve amendments had been successful.

"The opportunity to take control of the parliamentary agenda was lost last night," said one Remain-supporting Tory MP on Wednesday.

"But we've clarified where we're heading: Either the PM gets a miraculous breakthrough or, if there's no movement on the Withdrawal Agreement, she brings a deal back and it falls again."

It is certainly a risky strategy, because the clock is ticking down towards a no-deal Brexit. But they are depending on the belief that Theresa May — or at least her Cabinet — would not countenance such an outcome, despite the fact it remains the default option.

While it legally remains the default option, there is a growing belief among Conservative MPs that Theresa May would at least seek an extension of Article 50 to prevent the UK from crashing out of the EU in March.

A majority of MPs voted for an amendment expressing opposition to a no-deal outcome on Tuesday, and a growing number of Cabinet ministers including Amber Rudd and Jeremy Wright have refused to rule out resigning if Theresa May fails to try and prevent such an outcome. 

"My gut feeling is that the prime minister's deal will fall on February 14," said one anti-Brexit Conservative MP.

"At that point, the government will have little or no choice to request an extension of Article 50."

The question of what happens after that may well be the next battle.

NOW WATCH: MSNBC host Chris Hayes thinks President Trump's stance on China is 'not at all crazy'

See Also:

• Supporters of a plan to force Theresa May to delay Brexit fear their plan is unworkable
• People's Vote campaign considers backing a Citizens' Assembly in bid to secure a second referendum
• David Miliband: Brexit has made Britain an object of pity around the world

SEE ALSO: MPs vote for Brexit backstop to be changed, sending Theresa May back to Brussels

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January 31, 2019 at 03:15AM

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Mario Kart Tour for mobile delayed to summer 2019

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January 31, 2019 at 02:25AM

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Shell snaps up Greenlots to accelerate electric vehicle charging networks across the U.S.

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January 31, 2019 at 02:25AM

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10 things in tech you need to know today

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Good morning! This is the tech news you need to know this Thursday.

1. Apple said it revoked Facebook's enterprise certificates thanks to the social network paying people to sideload the Facebook Research app onto their iPhones. Apple says it took the dramatic step of revoking multiple enterprise certificates from Facebook, compromising not just programs like Facebook Research but also other iOS apps in development internally at Facebook.
2. Apple caused work inside Facebook to grind to a halt by revoking its enterprise certificates. Employees were unable to communicate with colleagues, access internal information, and even use company transportation, according to an internal memo leaked to Business Insider.
3. Facebook shrugged off its latest scandal with fourth quarter results that smashed expectations. It netted $16.91 billion in revenue in the final three months of the year, growing 30% year-on-year, while its EPS was $2.38.
4. Apple is preparing new iPhones with a powerful 3D camera, reports Bloomberg. The largest and most expensive phone, which could replace the iPhone XS Max, will have a three-camera module on its back, according to Bloomberg, which will enable additional zoom features.
5. Google is disabling its own research app that let users earn gift cards in exchange for their data. Like the Facebook Research app, Google's app appears to be a clear violation of Apple's Enterprise Developer Program policy.
6. Microsoft reported results for its holiday quarter on Wednesday after the bell — and posted earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations, though it showed stronger-than-expected cloud revenue. Microsoft came into this earnings season from a position of strength: Microsoft holds the title of most valuable company, with Amazon in a very close second.
7. Tesla's CFO is retiring — for the second time. Deepak Ahuja had already retired once in 2015 but later returned to the company.
8. Google will start deleting Google+ accounts and pages on April 2nd. On that date, Google+ accounts and pages will become inaccessible to users and content, including photos and videos from Album Archives, will begin to be deleted. 
9. Facebook says it's eventually going to stop disclosing the number of users of its flagship social network and focus on its 'family' of apps instead.  The size of Facebook's audience across all its apps — more than 2 billion every day at the end of 2019 — "better reflect the size of our community and the fact that many people are using more than one of our services," CFO Dave Wehner said on the call.
10. Jeff Bezos has reportedly hired private investigators to find who leaked his intimate text messages to former news anchor Lauren Sanchez. So far there is no evidence the leak was the result of a hack, but one theory is that it was politically motivated.
     

Have an Amazon Alexa device? Now you can hear 10 Things in Tech each morning. Just search for "Business Insider" in your Alexa's flash briefing settings.

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January 31, 2019 at 02:21AM

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Super Smash Bros. Ultimate sales soar past 12 million

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January 31, 2019 at 02:18AM

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5 Ways To Stop Meetings Torturing Your Staff

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January 31, 2019 at 01:58AM

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The 10 most important things in the world right now

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Kirill Kudryavtsev/Pool Photo via AP

Hello! Here's everything you need to know on Thursday, January 31.

1. Roger Stone likens the Russia probe to a 'speeding bullet' heading for the president's head. The Nixonian fixer believes that Donald Trump's US presidency lies in peril.

2. The US Federal Reserve has held its key interest rate unchanged.  That, combined with the central bank's upbeat commentary, sent stocks soaring on Wednesday.

3. Tesla's CFO is leaving the company for the second time. Deepak Ahuja had already retired once, in 2015. he's making way for Zach Kirkhorn, a veteran of Tesla, and current vice president of finance.

4. 'Everything's on the table' — except for the money to build a wall at the southern border.The Democrats say they have an entirely new wall-less border-security plan. 

5. Shares in Facebook jumped 8% after handsome Q4 2018 earnings. The social-media giant beat expectations on both top and bottom lines.

6. Elon Musk says Tesla's deficit days are done. From here on, the Tesla CEO says, there's just an open road of profit for "all quarters going forward."

7. President Donald Trump will not have it all one way at the State of the Union. Victorina Morales, an undocumented woman who worked at one of Trump's golf resorts has been invited to attend the speech by a Democrat from New Jersey.

8. Facebook's founder and CEO says he wants to end the age of apologies. Mark Zuckerberg told analysts and investors he wants to usher in a new age of all-out building "new experiences that meaningfully improve people's lives today and set the stage for even bigger improvements in the future."

9. Microsoft is leaving the past in the past. With PlayStation now in its sights, Bill Gates' software giant is burying its former misdeeds and looking to take over the game console universe.

10. Serbia just loves Russian President Vladimir Putin. And that affection says a lot about the decline of the United States across Europe.

And finally ...

The Midwest is colder than Antarctica thanks to the polar vortex — here's what it looks like »

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January 31, 2019 at 01:57AM

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A map showing Taiwan and China as separate countries rattled some nerves from behind China's Great Firewall

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• A White House map that showed Taiwan as a separate country from China is likely to draw as sharp a rebuke from mainland social media hawks even as it excited pro-independence supporters in Taipei.
• At a White House press conference on Monday dealing with the current crisis in Venezuela, viewers in Asia quickly homed in on a background map that highlighted China but displayed Taiwan as a separate country.
• China claims Taiwan as its own, while Taiwan views itself as independent from the mainland. China has exerted considerable effort to enforce its view in this matter.

At a White House press conference this week dealing with the current crisis in Venezuela, attention in Asia quickly turned to a background map highlighting China — absent Taiwan — in red. This is not a map that actually exists, according to the Chinese Communist Party and its critically important origin story.

As the US National Security Adviser John Bolton, and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin held a press briefing outlining economic sanctions to force Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to step down, attention from either side of the Taiwan Strait moved to the map in the background.

A press conference about South America, turning heads in Asia

(Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

On the White House map, China and Taiwan are clearly displayed with different colors, which to some, implied that the two countries are separate. China claims Taiwan as its own, while Taiwan views itself as independent from the mainland. China has exerted considerable effort to enforce its view in this matter.

According to the South China Morning Post, Taiwanese and mainland internet users took a few rhetorical jabs at the map.

Is that another country, Mr. Secretary?

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"Taiwan was painted white next to China, which was painted red. Obviously, the US government believes that the two sides belong to two countries," the Hong Kong tabloid The Daily noted (link in mandarin).

Beijing claims a number of contested territories, but is particularly sensitive about Taiwan, a self-ruled island that it considers to be a province of China. The Communist Party has used fines, public shaming, and the introduction of social credit scores for corporations to force foreign companies to adopt its political rhetoric.

Beijing's increasingly public obsession with cartography is emerging in increasingly strange quarters — from the redrawing of supposedly errant maps in classrooms, on travel websites, and in academic journals worldwide. From the South China Sea to Sikkim, the Middle Kingdom has been demanding more retractions and stronger apologies from anyone touting maps that do not fit with the Communist Party's view of its territory.

In Beijing's view, Taiwan has long been considered as a rogue province that must eventually be "reunited" with the mainland.

However, as James Miles, China editor for The Economist says on the Little Red Podcast, Taiwan has never actually been a part of China. The entire idea of "reunification," is a pretty good example of Chinese Communist Party propaganda on the issue, one that is intensely sensitive on the mainland, where the issue is constantly massaged and the slightest cartographic slip-up can trigger immense outrage.

It is an issue from which the CCP cannot waver. The Party derives much of its legitimacy from a historical narrative that has the Communists largely defeating Japanese invaders single-handedly, as the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan.

Since the election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, relations have fallen into a now-familiar cycle of defiance-threat-outrage.

How we got here

(Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)

Beijing has been increasing pressure on universities, nations and most vehemently on multinational corporations with China-based business to scrub out any hints of Taiwanese independence, a move the White House has described as "Orwellian."

China recently carried out live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait involving its Liaoning aircraft carrier, an exercise interpreted as a show of force. The naval exercise was the first in the Taiwan Strait since 2016 and was held just off the coast of Taiwan.

China's President Xi Jinping, often stamps China's sovereignty over Taiwan, warning at the 19th Party Congress, "we have sufficient abilities to thwart any form of Taiwan independence attempts."

Beijing has also imposed financial restrictions by significantly limiting the number of Chinese tour groups allowed to visit Taiwan, and imposed trade sanctions on the island.

As the South China Morning Post reports, it was only a few weeks ago that McDonald’s was forced into an apology following intense criticism for a TV commercial that incidentally featured a student ID card that listed Taiwan as a country.

Last year, United Airlines had to quickly remove all its references to Taiwan as a country after China’s civil aviation authority demanded that 36 foreign airlines nix Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau as countries on their websites and marketing materials.

Business Insider's complete list of chastened companies — from Audi to Zara to Marriott hotels — that have fallen afoul of China's approach to mapping, can be found here.

The SCMP reports that on Taiwan's major internet bulletin board system (link in mandarin) the map had attracted many hundreds of comments by Wednesday afternoon, with many users poking fun at China's recent hardline approach to Taipei.

"Are the Chinese internet users going to boycott the White House?" one user wrote, according to the SCMP.

"Will they force the White House to apologize?"

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See Also:

• The US Army wants a powerful cannon that can hit Chinese warships in the South China Sea from 1,000 miles away
• US to tweak its aircraft carrier weapons to help Marines take South China Sea islands in a missile fight
• US warships sail through the closely-watched Taiwan Strait, putting pressure on Beijing

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January 31, 2019 at 01:39AM

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People in Michigan facing brutal cold weather have been asked to turn down the heat at the worst possible time

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• Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer made a Wednesday night plea to citizens: Turn down natural gas-powered thermostats to 65° or lower until Friday at noon.
• The request comes as the Midwest is gripped by freezing temperatures caused by a polar vortex.
• Earlier on Wednesday there was an "unexpected incident" at a gas compressor station in Southeast Michigan in Macomb County, according to Consumers Energy.
• "We understand the timing of our request is not ideal given today’s cold temperatures, however, without additional reductions, we run the risk of not being able to deliver natural gas to families and critical facilities across Michigan – a scenario none of us want to encounter," Consumers Energy tweeted on Wednesday night.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer made a Wednesday night plea to citizens: Turn natural gas-powered thermostats to 65 degrees or lower until Friday at noon.

The ask comes as the Midwest is gripped by freezing temperatures caused by a polar vortex.

"I’m coming to you now to ask for your help," the lawmaker said in a video statement. "Due to extremely high demand for natural gas with these record low temperatures and a facility incident, Consumers Energy has asked that everyone who is able to turn down their thermostats through Friday at noon so we can all get through this with minimal harm."

Earlier on Wednesday there was an "unexpected incident" at a gas compressor station in Southeast Michigan, according to Consumers Energy. A fire at the compressor station means that "all gas flow from the compressor station has been shut in until safety and damage assessments can be completed."

Following the incident, Consumers Energy began asking both business and residential consumers to "temporarily reduce gas usage" to keep all citizens warm during the polar vortex.

"We understand the timing of our request is not ideal given today’s cold temperatures, however, without additional reductions, we run the risk of not being able to deliver natural gas to families and critical facilities across Michigan – a scenario none of us want to encounter," Consumers Energy tweeted on Wednesday night.

"The term polar vortex describes the mass of low-pressure cold air that circulates in the stratosphere above the Arctic and Antarctic regions," Business Insider's Aylin Woodward explains (in a very helpful piece). "Sometimes the circulation of the polar vortex weakens during the winter, causing surges of frigid air to splinter off and drift south."

Since Saturday, the cold weather has been blamed for around a dozen deaths in "Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota," Reuters reports. The dangerously cold temperatures have led to flights and train services being cancelled, along with the closure of schools, businesses, and non-essential government entities.

At the time of writing it was minus-13 degrees Farenheit, in Lansing, Michigan, by Friday the high is expected to be 18 degrees Farenheit — and at noon, residents will be able to turn up their heat. Until then Michiganders are being asked to do their part.

"You can play a role in helping people across the state survive these extreme temperatures," Whitmer said. "Please do. We’re calling on every Michigander to do your part and help us weather this storm together."

Resources for Michigan residents combatting the cold can be found here and here.

NOW WATCH: The worst thing people do to wake up in the morning, according to a sleep scientist

See Also:

• The Midwest is colder than Antarctica thanks to the polar vortex — here's what it looks like
• The polar vortex striking the US will cause temperatures to plummet up to 40 degrees colder than normal
• How long you can stay in extremely cold temperatures before getting frostbite

SEE ALSO: The Midwest is colder than Antarctica thanks to the polar vortex — here's what it looks like

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January 31, 2019 at 01:09AM

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Nevada officials had no clue the federal government shipped plutonium to their state

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AP

• Gov. Steve Sisolak of Nevada railed against the US Department of Energy for what he described as "unacceptable deception," after the agency transported a half-ton of weapons-grade plutonium to Nevada, allegedly without the state's consent.
• The plutonium was shipped from the Savannah River Site in South Carolina in order to comply with a federal court order in the state, according to a National Nuclear Security Administration official cited in a Las Vegas Review-Journal report.
• Sisolak said during a press conference on Wednesday afternoon that he did not know how the plutonium was transported or the route the Energy Department took to get to Nevada: "They provided us with no information in that regard."
• Sisolak said he is "exploring" several options for the plutonium, which was taken to the Nevada National Security Site. The state filed a temporary restraining order on Wednesday to prevent future shipments.

Gov. Steve Sisolak of Nevada railed against the Department of Energy for what he described as "unacceptable deception," after the agency transported a half-ton of weapons-grade plutonium to Nevada, allegedly without the state's consent.

"I am beyond outraged by this completely unacceptable deception from [The Department of Energy]," Sisolak said in a statement. "The Department led the State of Nevada to believe that they were engaging in good-faith negotiations with us regarding a potential shipment of weapons-grade plutonium, only to reveal that those negotiations were a sham all along."

"They lied to the State of Nevada, misled a federal court, and jeopardized the safety of Nevada’s families and environment," Sisolak said.

During a press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Sisolak said he did not know how the plutonium was transported or the route the Energy Department took to get to Nevada. "They provided us with no information in that regard," he said.

Sisolak said he would look into several options for the plutonium, which had been taken to the Nevada National Security Site.

"To put the health and the well-being of millions of people at risk ... without giving us the opportunity to prepare in case there would have been a mishap along the way, was irresponsible and reckless on behalf of the department," Sisolak said.

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

In a court filing, the Energy Department reportedly revealed it had completed the shipment of plutonium, but declined to provide specifics due to security reasons. It noted that the transfer was completed before November 2018, prior to an injunction the state had filed during negotiations.

The plutonium was shipped from the Savannah River Site in South Carolina in order to comply with a federal court order in the state, according to a National Nuclear Security Administration official cited in a Las Vegas Review-Journal report.

The National Nuclear Security Administration, the federal agency responsible for nuclear applications in the US military, claimed the plutonium would only be temporarily stored in Nevada before being moved to another facility in New Mexico or elsewhere, The Review-Journal reported.

Lawmakers from Nevada sought an injunction and raised questions about the safety of transporting the nuclear material, including the impact it could have on the environment. The state also claimed the Energy Department failed to conduct a federally mandated study to assess the risks in transportation, and neglected to study alternative sites for depositing the plutonium, according to The Review-Journal.

Sisolak said the state filed a temporary restraining order on Wednesday to prevent future shipments, and that he was seeking retribution from the Energy Department.

Throughout 2018, state and the federal officials were in preliminary negotiations for the transportation of plutonium, Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford said in the press conference.

In previous group emails, Nevada officials questioned the procedure and said their analysis indicated it was "insufficient ... to commence this transaction," according to Ford.

On October 30, Nevada officials met with Energy Department officials in Washington, DC, to "express the concerns regarding this proposal," Ford said. In November, the state also sent a request to the Energy Department for specific commitments and timelines.

"Now, this is all the while ... they had already shipped some plutonium," Ford said. "We're having good-faith discussions and negotiations ... but they had already shipped this plutonium."

The Energy Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday afternoon.

The transportation of nuclear waste is traditionally kept under close guard due to safety concerns. The Office of Secure Transportation within the Energy Department reportedly contracts hundreds of couriers to transport radioactive material using truck convoys.

NOW WATCH: MSNBC host Chris Hayes thinks President Trump's stance on China is 'not at all crazy'

See Also:

• As tensions in Venezuela heighten, Marco Rubio says US should 'go big' on its relationship with Brazil's new right-wing president
• Ex-White House aide Cliff Sims struggled to 'reconcile' Christian beliefs with Trump's anti-refugee stance
• Liberal mega-donor Tom Steyer on ex-Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz's possible independent 2020 run: 'It doesn't sound like he's ready for primetime'

SEE ALSO: The FBI has closed its investigation of the Las Vegas mass shooting that killed 58 people and injured hundreds more. Here's exactly how the nation's worst modern gun massacre unfolded

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January 30, 2019 at 11:15PM