Adobe Forecasts Nearly $241B In U.S. Online Holiday Sales

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Adobe Forecasts Nearly $241B In U.S. Online Holiday Sales

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Adobe forecasts record growth this year for ecommerce.

The company suggests strong discounts -- as high as 30% off listed price -- will drive shoppers to “trade up” in categories such as electronics, appliances and sporting goods, contributing more than $2 billion in spend.

Overall, U.S. online sales are expected to hit $240.8 billion -- up 8.4% year-over-year between November 1 through December 31, according to Adobe.

Shoppers spent $221.8 billion online -- with 4.9% growth YoY -- during the 2023 holiday season.

Mobile will increase in use, and Adobe expects mobile to hit new records, $128.1 billion, with devices projected to take 53.2% share over desktop.

Chatbots will come in handy, as consumers become more comfortable and willing to research products through AI-driven technology. Generative AI-powered chatbots are expected to drive 100% increased traffic to retail sites.

It may start online amidst ads across search engines, publisher and retail sites, but there’s a growing interest for in-store shopping. Engaging with interesting ads, as well as value in exchange for consumer loyalty can make all the difference this holiday season.

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Megan Harbold, vice president of strategy and growth at omnichannel ad platform Skai, offers a few words of advice to retailers and marketers.
“Anything that interrupts a consumer’s shopping moments rather than helps them will lead to suboptimal goals of both retailer and advertiser,” Harbold said. Online and offline purchases have blurred, and a positive shopper experience means consistency in price, product, and payments.

She says that to protect the brand, it's important to prepare to validate ad relevancy, and determine the incrementality of these ads versus more traditional shopper marketing or other digital advertising efforts. Connect audience insights with consumer targets and build strategic and helpful creative experiences across the various formats so consumers feel connected without seeing repetitive messages. Most important, connect data and measurement to validate performance.

A 2024 ecommerce study of 1,306 U.S. shoppers from Ryder Systems, The Influence of Omnichannel Excellence on Consumer Behavior, reveals key factors influencing purchasing decisions, customer loyalty, and retention as consumers reintegrate physical stores into their shopping journeys.

Perhaps commerce has stepped back into the past when consumers really enjoyed in-store shopping. Some 61% of survey participants reported shopping in-store this year because they enjoy the experience, up 21% compared to last year’s study. And 35% said they shop in-store because they don’t want to wait for online orders, about 4% through the mail.

Forty-one percent who buy cosmetics say they prefer to do so either in a brand’s physical retail location or a department and convenience store. As for apparel shoppers, 54% prefer to buy clothing in those same brick-and-mortar locations.

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September 27, 2024 at 03:41PM